Demantra: Analyical Engine - A deeper look - Part2

Analytical Engine's Demand planning(DP) mode run comprises of Prepossessing stage, followed by model application & testing stage. In Promotion Effectiveness(PE) mode run of engine, various promotional CFs are prepared and used before Forecast phase starts. 

Forecast Phase of Engine Run:

Pre-processing Stage:

1. Treatment of missing values.

2. Detection of intermittency.

3. Preliminary outlier and regime change detection.

4. Removal of obvious (gross) outliers.

5. Data transformation for use in specific models.

Model application & Testing Stage:

1. Checking that the number of data points exceeds at least by two the number of causal factors. This is done to ensure that, No over-fitting occurs and coefficients for all causal factors can be determined.

2. Estimation. Statistical algorithms, are implemented to data and their parameters are calculated.

3. Fit and Residuals calculation. Fit is calculated by applying an estimated model to the historical period. It reflects the ability of the model to reproduce the actual series. The deviation of fit from the actual forms the residual series. The variance of residual, along with complexity (number of estimated parameters) is utilized to compute the weights for model averaging.

4. To check the ability of a model to mimic the actual series, a Fit validation is performed, provided the nableFitValidation flag is on.In Fit validation the residuals undergo a battery of statistical tests.Forecast performs identical calculation to Fit, only for the future period, lead.

5. To perform Forecast validation, both the parameter EnableForecastValidation and the variable ValidFit have to be “True”. This is because if a model reached this stage with invalid fit, it must be running at the highest forecast level, and at this level forecast validation is disabled, allowing a somewhat more liberal treatment of models. In Forecast validation models undergo three tests:

• A test for an unusual zigzag-type jump

more details on Demantra's Engine can be found in Oracle Metalink's Documentation library for Demantra.

Demantra: Analytical Engine - A deeper look - Part1

Through this post, I would like to share some of findings about how Demantra's analytical engine works. The post is based on Demantra's documents created by Oracle and are available in Oracle Metalink for a detailed study. 

 What is Forecasting

Forecasting empowers one to predict the futuristic tendencies of supply chain, influenced by seasonal and other predictable factors. The result of forecast is a projected curve that has been smoothed to show tendencies and de-emphasize the exceptional variations.

Demantra engine is capable of multidimensional forecasting with mixed modeling techniques. It has been designed to be robust enough for handling large scale installations. It is capable of modeling hundreds of thousands of data sets with various data patterns.

Modeling is performed according to forecast tree, in which each node in the tree is defined by an item-location combination in the Enterprise Data model. Engine tries to generate forecast at lowest level of item-location combination, but in situations where due of data insufficiency's , it is unable to generate a good forecast, then it traverses the Forecast tree to higher level for generation of forecast at an aggregated level. Forecast generated at higher level is split down to lowest level, using a splitting mechanism called “proport”.

Batch verses Simulation

Engine can be executed in two modes, Batch or Simulation.

Batch Run:

• Traverses a large forecast tress, described in database. Each node in tress represents a time based data series that is subjected to forecast.

• Performs model calculation on a large subset of data series (each node of forecast tree)

• Writes the processed data series to a new forecast table in database.

• Executes a post-process procedure which updates new forecast table

Simulation Run:

• Same steps as above are performed but on a selective subset of data, as chosen by user for “what-if” kind of simulation run.

  
  

  Engine Components

  
  

  Engine consists to two components, Engine manager and Engine server. There is one instance of Engine manager and one or more instances of engine server. The engine server scans a portion of the forecast tree according to the traversal rules, and sends the output to the split mechanism. 
  The engine server receives IDs of tasks from Engine manager, which divides the forecast tree into sub-trees (tasks). The engine manager is responsible for the engine run as a whole.  

  
  

  Based on Engine settings done via Engine Administrator application, Engine managers tries to initiate an engine server on list of machines on network having engine registered and server component installed.

  
  

  Reference “Details of Engine Manager & Server”. (source: Oracle Demantra Engine Guide v.5.2.6)

  
  

  Causal Factors

  
  

  Factors which cause the deviation from a trend, are known as Causal Factors. E.g. a sales promotion, due of it’s result you expect sales to rise. On the other hand, a sales promotion by your competitor can impact your sales negatively, which also becomes a causal factor.

  
  

  Causal factors such as promotions, marketing campaigns and production stoppages are essential components when analyzing demand pattern.

  
  

  Global Causal Factors effect all the nodes of forecast tree, seasonal CFs are normally global.

  
  

  Local CFs can be different for each item-location combination.

  
  

  Event is another word for CF, it can be loaded easily with Code, value and intensity information. Event information is not necessarily required to be loaded in future.

  
  

  
  

  ............to be continued.

  
  

ASCP Data Collection: A high level overview

Process of collecting data in proper format from ERP(transactional) instance/schemas to APS(Planning) instance/schema, for easy usage by APS modules like ASCP, GOP, IO, Demantra and others. ERP stores all master data & transactional data, in respective product schemas like INV, BOM, WIP, MRP, PO etc., which is collected to MSC schema for planning applications.

Components of Collection process:
1. Refresh Snapshots: runs always only on the ERP source instance in Distributed environment
2. Planning Data Pull: Pulls data from ERP source schemas to MSC_ST% tables
3. ODS Load: Does data cleansing & manipulation, followed by loading base MSC% tables from MSC_ST%(Staging) tables

For integrated Demantra, further collection of history & related data is required to populate Demantra base tables. The processes for these collections are run from the responsibility "Demand Management System Administrator". The Standard collection option in Demantra responsibility is same as ASCP standard collection. The other collections processes are Demantra specific.

Modes of Collection:

1. Standard: Using this option, one can manually launch collection in three methods, Complete Refresh, Targeted Refresh & NetChange.
2. Continuous: this is an automated collection process, which requires minimal manual intervention and it keeps planning instance data synchronized with ERP source instances. It automatically determines which method of collection should be used.

Few notes to remember:
1. Source ERP instances can be a mixture of releases and can be a legacy instance as well
2. ASCP instance can share instance with one of the ERP instances
3. Collection is required even if APS & ERP instances reside on same instance
4. Supplies against Drop Ship are not collected, as ASCP doesn't plan for drop ship sales

Demantra S&OP(7.2.0.2) integration with EBS 11.5.10 released

Oracle has released another integration patch recently to provide seeded integrated S&OP functionality to it's existing 11.5.10 customer base. This patch builds integration between EBS 11.5.10 and Demantra 7.2.0.2 S&OP. Oracle has already released integration to 7.2 S&OP & Demand Management, with EBS R12 through 12.0.4 release. Also EBS 11.5.10 integration with Demantra DM exists already.

The new release has been named as Demantra 7.2.0.2 ( or 7.2 CU2). More details are available in Metalink note id "470574.1".

ASCP - Unconstrained Plan

Few basic characterstics can be listed as below;
An unconstrained plan:
- doesn't consider manufacturing capacities (material & resources)
- assumes infinite capacity
- results are same as traditional MRP
- simply is an statement of what all resources would be needed to meet the production schedule
- can come handy in long term decision making for resource requirement planning

Oralce's ASCP module can be used for unconstrained planning as well, unconstrained ASCP plans are usually like baby steps towards more complex, holistic, constrained & optimized planning ASCP world.

Unconstrained ASCP plans thus form an integral part of ASCP implementation, as it can be used for getting familiar with application, as well as in verifying the ASCP outcomes. You can compare the unconstrained ASCP plan recommendations with your MRP plan results and thus can validate the basic ASCP setup.

Two important aspects to be focused on while running ASCP unconstrained plan should be:
1. Try to duplicate results of legacy MRP system.
2. Increase familiarity & confidence on ASCP application.

Steps to implement an unconstrained ASCP plan:

1. Create DB link between transaction source(ERP) server and APS(Advanced Planning & Scheduling) server

2. Setup collection program

3. Run collection to copy supply chain model from source instance to APS server

4. Define an ASCP plan and setup plan options.(with no constraints)

5. Launch the plan

VERIFICATION: Unconstrained plan is designed to produce identical results as that of legacy ERP system. This becomes useful in verifying implementation and in building users confidence with the ASCP application.

Oracle Advanced Supply Chain Planning(ASCP)

ASCP module forms the core of Oracle's APS suite, with its holistic global supply & distribution planning functionalities. With ASCP you can plan simultaneously for all your manufacturing plants & distribution houses at different granularity of time in a single plan, which considers the latest demand, forecast, sourcing rules, current inventory and production levels. ASCP offers a variety of plan options and plan types, which can be used to model individual business supply chain planning needs. In general, ASCP implementations start with an initial phase of "unconstrained ASCP plans" usage. In due course of time and with planner's readiness towards understanding the inputs, setups and results, one can move forward with "constrained" ASCP plans (e.g. EDD, ECC & Optimized plans).

Why MRP isn't sufficient?
Becasue:
- It is sequential in nature
- It plans based on unconstrained production, storage & transportation capacity
- It does not optimizes the supply recommendations
- It has no decision support capabilities

Few of major features of ASCP module can be listed as:
- Global Visibility
- Rapid ROI
- Supports Centralized & Decentralized planning
- Supports mixed mode manufacturing
- Holistic Plans for high level planning & Detailed scheduling
- Finite Constraint based Planning(CBP) & Scheduling
- Optimization across multiple Objectives
- Online Replan & Simulation capabilities
- Supports Global Order Promising(GOP)

A good definition for ASCP, found in Oracle documentation:
"Oracle ASCP is a comprehensive, Internet based planning solution that can rapidly and significantly improve supply chain performance. ASCP is based on Oracles' Internet computing architecture, third generation Oracle memory based planning engine technology and proven constraint based planning & optimization technology."

For more details:
Oracle's ASCP offering page link: "http://www.oracle.com/applications/planning/SCMP.html"

How is "Demantra different from ODP" ?

Oracle has left behind ODP and have Demantra as ther future demand planning & forecasting application. Demantra has already found it's place in Oracle's roadmap for Fusion. Demantra had many major differentiators on ODP, that it made Oracle's job of selling Demantra as substitute for ODP, a lot easier. Demantra's beysian mix modeling technique, it's flexible & scalable nature, and support for functions like, S&OP, PTP and TPMO are among few of these differentiators. 

ODP's best fit forecasting method had the capability of selecting the most fit model, for forecast calculation for a data series. It used one of all the available models, which had least residual and was a closest fit to historical demand data. While in Demantra, engine selects multiple good fit models and puts a coefficient to each of their predictions, to calculate the final baseline forecast. So Demantra calculates fit for multiple models to historical demand, and then tries to validate the fit. In the forecasting process, based on residual calculations it also calculates weightages for each of those models and then all of those are combined to form a combined mix estimator model. The Beysian modeling hence uses multiple models, instead of one best fit, which ensures that a better statistical forecast is generated.

Demantra's BPM(Business Process Mapping) capabilities ensures it a berth in Oracle's Fusion and future product roadmap. Demantra's footprint in Trade promotions management & optimization business solutions, along with it's Deduction & Settlement Management modules, makes it a better bundled suite of solutions. 

How to: "Create a Data Series"

This post contains a simple example of creating a data series and also lists out a starter's definition to "data series" in Demantra application. For those who have worked on ODP, Series in Demantra are like "Measures" in ODP. One can create and build a simple to quite complex logic for data values which are stored and are shown in the Series. 

A simple series could be "Budget Data", which simply is created to store financial budget information. On other hand, one can create series like "Projected Inventory" or "Safety Stock", which uses multiple base series for computing the values. 

More details on Series creation and options available, can be easily found in documentation provided by Oracle. Please refer to below documentation for a better understanding of "Series":

Document is available @http://download.oracle.com/docs/cd/E11051_02/demantra/acrobat/ddmug.pdf

Demantra Forecasting Models- Part2

continued from Part-1 of Models for DM module ...

http://oracledemantra.blogspot.com/2007/12/demantra-forecasting-models-part1.html

6. Combined Transformation Model(elog): Works in both DP & PE mode of analytical engine run and is combination of Transformation &  CMReg model. This model performs CMReg operations on log transformed time series. 

7. Multiplicative Monte Carlo Regression(CMReg): This model comes into picture for both DP &PE mode run as well, and utilizes long Causal Factors. 

8. Integrated Causal Exponential Model(BWint): This also is a regression model, known as Multiplicative regression - winter model.  The model works only in DP mode. It runs multiplicative regression on Causal data (short CFs) and then smooths out the residual series exponentially like HOLT. It helps modeling Trends, Seasonality and Causality in demand data. 

9. Auto & Linear Regression: It is available in DP mode run and includes auto-regression. Causal factors which are used by this model are Constant & events. 

NOTE: All the 15 models can be used by engine in DP mode run, while in PE mode following models are not available:

- ARIX, ARLOGISTIC, ARX, BWINT, FCROST, ICMERGR & IREGR

Demantra: How to "Create a new Worksheet"

We covered in last few posts, how one can login into Demantra application with ease and can launch worksheet application. Worksheets are the most used GUI in Demantra application by end users, it helps user in reporting, data entry, what-if analysis runs, decision making, nodal tuning and approval process.

In this post you can see how to create a simple new worksheet.


Download and study the "Demand Management User Guide" , for more details on Worksheet application.
Document is avaialble @ http://download.oracle.com/docs/cd/E11051_02/demantra/acrobat/ddmug.pdf

How to : "Launch Worksheet application"

One can launch worksheet application through Collaborator Workbench, you need to open any of the existing worksheets by clicking on it. Once worksheet application is launched you can create new worksheets or can work on any other existing ones.

How To: "Personalize Collaborator Workbench"

Collaborator workbench is an web-based thin client platform, which acts as a launch pad for various applications, like Worksheets, Business Modeler, Demand Planner etc.. Also it provides a task list for users to work on and empowers them with number of dashboards showing trends, KPIs and business driving factors.

You can completely personalize collaborator workbench as per your role, responsibility and daily routine work. The order and looks of each pane can be modified by user, with ease.

Selecting & Organizing Panes:

You can easily select & manage the panes, change their order of arrangement, select relevant KPI dashboards, member browser content panes, etc. This all can be done by simply using the "Personalize" option available on top-right corner of Collaborator workbench. You will see all the available contents and one can choose based on their usage and need, which contents should be shown on their personal collaborator workbench. One can also move the contents up and down, e.g. you can have "My Tasks" pane on the top and can push the "My Worksheets" pane down.

Personalize "My Worksheets" pane:

It starts with selecting most common and most used worksheets under pane "My Worksheets", by clicking on "Personalize" button on up right corner of pane "My Worksheets". You shall see all the relevant worksheets in and then you can pick ones you want to be shown in the workbench.

Manage "My Tasks" pane:

"My Tasks" pane is like your mail box for Demantra environment, you will get tasks/notifications/alerts/attachments as list items under your content pane "My Tasks". One should ensure completed tasks are removed from the list, so that list of tasks doesn't grow like anything.

Note:

1. Remember that you should not keep lot of Dashboards on your workbench as it can significantly increase the loading time.

2. Treat your collaborator workbench as your office desk, and try to keep only important items on it. Keep it simple and clean to improve your efficiency.

For more details on Collaborator Workbench, read "Demantra Collaborator Workbench User's Guide 7.0.2 " @ http://download.oracle.com/docs/cd/E11885_01/demantra/html/docset.html

How To: Login into Demantra application

How To: Login into Demantra application

Demantra installer adds a folder with name like "Oracle Demantra Spectrum" under "Start>>Program Files" menu option. (Remember: This startup program option is created only if during installation you have selected the corresponding option)

Click on Start >Programs > Oracle Demantra Spectrum, on Demantra server machine and you should see a list of programs available in the list. (as shown here)

Demantra application comprises of a set of desktop based and web-based applications. Desktop based applications are adminstrative ones like Business Modeler, Demand Planner, Engine Administrator & Scheduler. Web-based applications are Collaborator Workbench and Workflow manager, these can be accessed from IE(Internet explorer) using specific URLs. Start & Stop Web Server, options are available for tomcat control.

Other programs listed like Analytical Engine, Business Logic Engine & Simulation Engine are very rarely used and some of them launch Engine in command prompt mode.

To Login into Collaborator Workbench, for accessing worksheets and dashboards:

>Ensure Web Server is up and running

>Click on "Collaborator Workbench" option

>In Login screen enter user: dm/password: dm

>Wait till all the java applets are loaded and then click on any of the worksheets under pane "My Worksheets"

>This should launch the workhseet application.

Remember:

1. One can start the desktop based application, with DB up and running. For web-based applications, tomcat (web server) should be running too.

2. One can use seeded logins like dm/dm, sop/sop etc, based on modules which have been installed.

How To: install Demantra application?

How To: install Demantra application?

For basic demo environment setup, single tier architecture suits which comprises of having Oracle Database, Demantra application server and Analytical engine, all in one machine.
Demantra installation can be very easily done using the Demantra installer file. But before you start ensure, that you have Oracle DB installed up and running. Also one should keep handy details like Oracle SID, Database system user login, etc. More details on installation can be gathered from following links:

A blog on Oracle Demantra 7.2 installation:
http://applicationsdba.blogspot.com/2008/01/r12-demantra-integration-part-ii.html

Previously published blog on Demantra installation 7.1.1:
http://oracledemantra.blogspot.com/2007/10/installing-demantra-711-on-windows.html

My Oracle Support(Metalink): Oracle Demantra Installation for Release 7.1.1http://metalink.oracle.com/metalink/plsql/ml2_documents.showDocument?p_database_id=NOT&p_id=428495.1

My Oracle Support(Metalink): EBS-Demantra Integration Installation Overview and Diagramhttp://metalink.oracle.com/metalink/plsql/ml2_documents.showDocument?p_database_id=NOT&p_id=434991.1

Post installation activities:
1. Set up Environment variable "JAVA_HOME"
2. Launch and verify tomcat(web server) runs fine
3. Launch and test Collaborator workbench application
4. Launch and validate that desktop based application are working fine. (like Business modeler, Demand planner, Engine Administrator etc.)

How to: get hold of Demantra documentation ? |

There are multiple sources to access Demantra documentation, few of them includes:

1. Online documentation for Oracle Demantra available at:
"http://download.oracle.com/docs/cd/E11885_01/demantra/html/homeset.html".

2. My Oracle Support (previously known as Metalink):
If you have Metalink login access, then you can search and find all the available documentations released by Oracle.
https://metalink.oracle.com/

3. Oracle Demantra installed folder:
Few basic documents are available when you install Demantra application. These can be found under the installed folder "Oracle Demantra Spectrum".

News: Kyocera gets Demantra

"In a bid to help wireless manufacturer, to improve planning and forecasting functions, BearingPoint, Inc. has announced it deployed Oracle Demantra Demand Management for the San Diego, California- based company.

With the solution in place, Kyocera is able to improve accuracy and no longer depends on a manual process for planning and forecasting Also, with Oracle Demantra the company can generate more consistent reports and maintain a better audit trail.

All of these new capabilities also help Kyocera Wireless to better respond to demand as well as generate forecasts and consensus plans without the need of any special expertise. ........................................"
For complete story visit "http://call-center-software.tmcnet.com/topics/call-center-solutions/articles/40585-kyocera-gets-oracle-demantra-from-bearingpoint.htm"

Demantra: "How to" Series

We will be starting a "How to" series, for Demantra which will bring answers to various setup and configuration related queries on Demantra. We will start with basics and then move on to more complex world of Demantra product. In case you have any specific question, then put in comments and we would be glad to include that question in this series.

Installing Demantra on SQL server

Installing Demantra on SQL server
Demantra application can be installed on Oracle Database as well as on Micrsoft's Database SQL server. Oracle's recent Demantra release 7.2.0.1 is well supported on MS SQL server 2005 database. If you have already are familiar with Demantra installation on Oracle DB, then installing it on MS SQL sever should be pretty easier.

Pre-requisite for Demantra installation on SQL server can be listed as:
1. The client machine where Demantra is being installed should have MS SQL client (same version as server) installed on it.
2. You should extract standard backup file from the installer, say from "F:\Demantra 7.1.1 installer\Disk1\InstData\Resource1.zip >>unzip>>Infra/Database Objects/Microsoft SQL Server/dumps", and put it in the SQL server machine.
3. Keep handy DB server connectivity information and 'sa'(system administrator) login details.



Installing Demantra on SQL Server:
1. Click on "Setup.exe" (Launch anywhere application for installing Demantra) to initiate the installation.
2. Click on option "Install Demantra Spectrum" and then Click on "Next" button at the bottom.
3. In installation tab, Select component of application to be installed. (say, DM) >> Click on Next >>
4. Select Path where you would like to install Demantra.>> Click on Next >>
NOTE: You will have to put backup file in the same path location on Server machine, as mentioned in point 2 of Pre-requisite section above.
5. Select from options available to create Product launch shortcuts. (say, In a new Program Group)>> Click on Next >>
6. Choose Database type as "SQL Server". >> Click on Next >>

7. Provide details for 'sa' login and the SQL server name. >> Click on Next >>

8. Enter SQL DB Schema/User login and Database to be created in case of fresh install. (In case of upgrade you can enter details for existing Demantra database & schema).>> Click on Next >>

9. Select Engine execution type. (Manual or Automated)>> Click on Next >>

10. Wait for Completion of Demantra installation. >> Click on Done>>

Important Note:

1. The SQL DB user should have db_creator and bulkadmin permission
2. Backup file should be extracted out and stored in correct path, prior to installation
3. Password for DB user should respect SQL server security levels(shouldn't be too simple)
4. Ensure SQL server connectivity is established and verified
   

Refer Oracle Metalink for SQL server support related queries.

Demantra integration patches rolled up into R12.0.4

For customers on R12.0.4 instance level, there is no need for applying any integration patch for seeded Oracle EBS-Demantra integration to work.
As Oracle has got the Demantra-EBS Integration patch contents rolled up into 12.0.4, so if you are on 12.0.4 you just need to install Oracle Demantra 7.2.0 or higher version and no other patch is required for integration, unlike with 11.5.10 CU2 and R12.0.3 where EBS-Demantra integration patch needs to be applied.

For more details refer to Oracle Metalink Note:727237.1

Demantra - S&OP (Sales & Operational Planning) : Integration Overview - 3

S&OP module of Demantra 7.2:

Oracle has provided a great solution as out of box offering for Sales & Operational Planning process in form of Demantra's S&OP module, integrated seamlessly with EBS R12, ASCP, and SNO. Oracle has done lot of seeded configuration in Demantra front to support the S&OP processes and integration with Enterprise resource planning(ERP), strategic planning tool(SNO), and tactical planning application(ASCP). We will try to take a closer look at these entities and how it can help you in building a collaborative, integrated, Real time Sales & Operational Planning environment using Demantra.
S&OP configuration in Demantra has been built on top of basic Demand Management module, so all the seeded DM entities co-exist and are used in S&OP module as well. S&OP has been defined as a separate component within Demantra so that S&OP process stakeholders work on entities related to them. Remember that Data model definition remains common for S&OP as well as DM modules of Demantra.

NEW DEMANTRA ENTITIES:

1. Levels & Hierarchies:

New levels and hierachies to support viewing/analyzing supply plan and related data for Supply Review and Executive Reviews have been introduced. For Supply review, Supply plan information is being captured in Plan Scenario (General Levels) with proper statuses in Scenario Status(Plan Scenario>Scenario Status) to maintain and manage Supply plans in Demantra. Also new Supplier level(lowest level) and Resource level (Resource-Scenario>Resource, Linked Scenario) hierarchy also appears for viewing data at Supplier level.

2. Series for RT-S&OP

S&OP involves much more information and collaboration in terms of inputs, recommendations and consensus, thus Oracle has provided seeded series for carrying out S&OP sub processes. All the supply plan related information at Plan Scenario level for item & location population is stored in form on various series:

Plan related data series: Available Resource/Supplier Premium/Standard Capacity, Required Resource/Supplier Capacity, Constrained Forecast, Beginning On-hand, Dependent Demand, Inventory plan, Planned Shipments, Production Plan, Safety Stock.

SCI data series: Actual Production, Actual On-hand, Past due backlog, Total backlog etc. for capturing Supply Chain Intelligence data to monitor KPIs and for exception management.

Consensus related data: Multiple series for handling consensus creation process during Demand Review stage, like for weightages from various stakeholders, their forecasts, Consensus Forecast (in units & amount), etc.

3. Worksheets

To carry out each of the sub-processes in S&OP like Demand Review, Supply Review, etc., Oracle has provided quite a few seeded worksheets for each of these steps.

• 
  
  Worksheets to support Demand Review Process : Marketing Forecast, Sales Forecast, Consensus Forecast related worksheets at various levels of aggregation.


• 
  
  Worksheets to support Supply Review Process: Constrained Plan, Production Plan, Inventory plan and Exception management related worksheets for Supply Demand balancing and analysis of various Supply scenarios, coming from ASCP/SNO.


• 
  
  Consolidated Plan related worksheets for reviewing and approving the final agreed upon Demand & Supply plan, which is further published back to ASCP for further detailed planning and execution.


• 
  
  Worksheets & Content panes for KPIs like Demand Fill%, Production & Inventory plan adherence, etc.

4. Integration Interfaces: Since S&OP process captures, processes and involves much more information as compared to DM, you can find new Integration Interfaces for supporting this inbound and outbound data flow. Few important interfaces which has been seeded by Oracle are described briefly in table below:

Workflows related to Plans, allow you to easily load your Supply plan data in form of Plan scenarios into Demantra for Supply reviews and Plan consolidations.

5. Workflows: Real time Sales & Operational Planning is more of process and people oriented than application oriented, it requires input and approvals from various stakeholders for consolidation Oracle has addressed this front with Demantra's seeded workflows which can be customized further to fit customer's requirements. Workflows automate/semi-automate key processes like Demand Review, Supply plan load, exceptions handling and Publishing Consensus plans.

Besides above discussed entities, there are few more setups and entities, which have been provided with out-of-box S&OP Demantra application. Remember that the configuration flexibility of Demantra provides a huge opportunity for solving your specific S&OP problems. With seeded integration between EBS and APS suite products, S&OP module of Demantra can be easily Incorporated in your organization.

Demantra - S&OP (Sales & Operational Planning) : Integration Overview - 2

What it takes for seeded S&OP integration to work ?
Demantra's 7.2.0 and higher versions have seeded integration for Sales & Operations Planning(S&OP) module with Advanced Supply Chain Planning(ASCP) & Strategic Network Optimizer(SNO) modules of APS. The seeded integration however currently is supported only with Oracle EBS R12.0.4 version and is available as integration patch. Once you fulfill the pre-requisite criterias and apply the patches, on EBS front new responsbilities start appearing(similar to EBS-DM integration).

What's new on EBS side? :

The New Responsbilities for S&OP:
1. Sales & Operations Planning System Administrator : This responsbility is quite similar to Demand Managment System Administrator responsbility and has few Menu options common to DM System Administrator. Users who controls and executes data collection for S&OP planning should have access to this responsbility. S&OP Administrator can collect all the relevant data from EBS into Demantra, using Collection menu options controlled by Setups and Profile options.
The Menus in this responsbility are divided broadly into following:

• Links to Open Demantra S&OP application (which includes : S&OP Workbench, Workflow Manager, Administration, User Management)
• Collections Menu (which includes : Collection > Standard collection, Shipment & Booking History data, SCI Data**, Currency Conversion, UOM Conversion, Returns History, Pricing Data, and Download Calendars)
• Collect from Legacy (Legacy Collection - Flat; Legacy Collection - Self; Shipment & Booking History - Flat; Shipment & Booking History - Self Service)
• Setup ( Instances; Calendar List; New Product List; Price List )

2. Sales & Operations Planning Analyst: S&OP Analyst responsibility is same as Demand Analyst in Oracle's EBS-Demantra DM integration. As an analyst, the menu options have limited authority and can only Open Demantra S&OP applications - S&OP Workbench, Workflow, Administration, and User Management pages.

3. New S&OP enabled plan options: ASCP & SNO plan options have now a new check box saying "S&OP enabled", once selected those Supply plans can be brought inside Demantra for S&OP process as Supply Plan Scenarios.

4. Publish option in SNO: New option to publish SNO plan for S&OP usage has been added in SNO workbench.

** From collection point of view, only Supply Chain Intelligence(SCI) data is added entity as compared to Demand Management integration. SCI data being collected comprises of Order backlog information, Actual production data, etc.

Besides above changes on EBS/ASCP/SNO side, Demantra's S&OP module has been changed a lot to support this seeded integration. There are new Levels, hierarchies, series, worksheets. integration interfaces, workflows etc. which appear if you install S&OP module.

Demantra - S&OP (Sales & Operational Planning) : Integration Overview - 1

Demantra - S&OP (Sales & Operational Planning)

Sales & Operational Planning module of Demantra has got a complete makeover by Oracle, in Demantra's 7.2 release Oracle launched integrated S&OP module as Supply Chain Planning offering. S&OP module has been integrated with ASCP (Advanced Supply Chain Planning), SNO (Strategic Network Optimization) and IO (Inventory Optimization) of APS suite, along with seamless integration with Oracle EBS R12.0.4.

High Level Data Flow in S&OP:

Data flow in S&OP can vary based on whether ASCP or SNO or Both are used in the process. We will go through one of the possible scenarios here and will then later focus on integration with ASCP & SNO separately.

• Collection of Shipment & Booking history (old DM feature)
• Download History data into Demantra using seeded workflow "EBS Full Download"
• Demand Review:
  
• Generate Forecast - Shipment & Booking
• Generate Consensus Forecast
• Submit Consensus Forecast to Planning applications (SNO/ASCP/IO etc.)
  

• Supply Chain Planning
• Generate Assignment Set(sourcing rules) from SNO Plan based on Consensus Forecast
• Generate Safety Stock plan from IO, using Consensus Forecast and Accuracy
  
• Create ASCP Plan with Assignment Set from SNO, Safety Stocks from IO and Demand Schedule from Demantra - Demand Review process
  
• Make ASCP plan available for S&OP (new check box in ASCP plan options)

• Supply Plan Review
  
• Download Supply Plan names/members into Demantra S&OP using seeded workflow "Load Plan Scenarios"
• Download Supply Plan data using seeded Level Method "Load Scenario Plan Data"
• Exceptions are detected automatically as part of Load data workflow and S&OP users are intimated with Tasks/Alerts
• In case for removal of Exceptions Supply plan needs to be re-launched after making recommended changes, then Supply plan is re-run and re-downloaded into Demantra
• Once Exceptions are handled and are taken care of, then next step is taken

• S&OP Executive Review
• Review Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) as per the S&OP plan/scenarios
  
• Review Supply plan scenarios and Exceptions
  
• S&OP committee finalizes S&OP Plan
  
• Publish the Final Plan and archive it, for future references

We will talk more about Demantra's S&OP integration with EBS/ASCP/SNO in next few blogs.

You can refer to Oracle's documentation on S&OP module available on Oracle Metalink for getting into details. ( Refer to previous post for whereabouts of Demantra http://oracledemantra.blogspot.com/2008/07/demantra-documentation-on-metalink.html)

Demantra Documentation

I have been getting some queries regarding location and where abouts of Demantra documentation, so in this blog I will be putting some details about the same.

Demantra Documents in Metalink:

Oracle has nicely gathered all the user guides and implementation guides related to Demantra at one place "Oracle Demantra Documentation Library" in Metalink. (Doc Id: 443969.1)

The Library contains all the versions starting from latest Demantra 7.2.1 to older ones like Demantra 5.2.

Few of the old basic Demantra documentations are available under 7.0.1 release header:

• Demantra Spectrum 7.0.1
• Demantra Spectrum 7.0.1 Administrator's Guide
• Demantra Spectrum 7.0.1 Consultant's Guide etc..

Another important document, which can be a good starting platform for learning is "Oracle Demantra 7.1 Foundation Implementation Guide", which can be found under header of 7.1 release.


You can easily find out all the relevant documentation on Demantra published and maintained by Oracle here.


Demantra SIG:

Demantra SIG is a part of Oracle's OAUG and has been delivering various knowledge sharing sessions and conferences on regular basis. You can find interesting documents, case studies, and some advanced Demantra documentation at Demantra's SIG group website.

http://demantrasig.oaug.org/knowledgebase.php?page=knowledgebase

Oracle's Demantra Site:

In Oracle's website also some basic information on various modules and Demantra product is available.
http://www.oracle.com/demantra/index.html

R12.1: Service & Spare Parts Planning (SPP)

In this blog I would try to share my exposure on Oracle's new release Service Parts Planning, based on a recent Oracle Webcast.

Oracle's R12.1 APS suite has a new product in offering "Spare/Service Parts Planning", which is focused to answer the need of an advanced, automated, exception based planning application of Service industry. Sectors which can highly benefit from Service Parts Planning are Industrial Manufacturing, Aerospace, High Tech & OEMs. As volume of spares in these sectors is significantly large and forecasting amount of spares to be available at various stocking location in a Service industry supply chain, itself is a painful job. Besides forecasting, safety stocks calculation, and replenishment planning are two more complicated processes in this industry and the complexity of it can be easily imagined considering number of spare parts involved in Services.

Research shows that After-market sales forms more profitable part of business, as compared to profit earned by sales of original equipments. Also the amount of money involved in Service sector of business is huge and thus becomes a potential market to target for improving the current form of supply chain planning system.

Service Supply Chains are more complex as flow of material is not one way,. Spares flow from Suppliers to Warehouses to Service Technicians, while defective parts material flow backward for repair or replacements. In a standard Service supply chain, the complexity if pretty high because of various locations and spare parts volume. This needs an application which can handle forward as well as backward material flow, so that smooth material flow can be achieved.

For company's who have Service as a key contributor and part of their business and it's growing at a fast pace, SPP can be a best of breed solution for all of theirs Service Parts Planning needs.

What SPP has to offer:
1. Forecast accurately with build in Demantra's Forecasting engine
2. Replenish spares based on Single plan model
3. Distribute spares using SPP's plan
4. One single UI to carry out all 3 above processes for improved productivity
5. Forecasting based on Shipments, Spares Usage, and Returns
6. Plan based on Service parts failure rates calculations
7. Integrated with various APS modules like Demantra DM, CP, IO, and ASCP.

Benefits:

• Reduced inventory carrying cost for Spares
• Increased Spares demand fill rates
• Improved Customer Service Levels
  

SPP is available in Oracle's R12.1 APS product release and is completely integrated with EBS R12 and EBS 11i10. It can be implemented along with any APS module or can be even implemented as a stand-alone application. In a stand-alone environment, the SPP product can be easily integrated with other ERPs through APIs and legacy integration.

For more information on product offering and capabilities, review documentation available in Oracle Metalink.

Oracle R12 Online instances

For those who wants to learn and get their hands on Oracle R12 instance, you can easily do it over the Internet. You can register yourself at following portals and can access R12 environments easily.


1. OracleContractors (http://www.oraclecontractors.com/)
2. Solutionbeacon (http://www.solutionbeacon.com/tools_vision.htm)

Demantra: Data Security & User Management

Role based data asssignement and Data security has a lot of importance in Planning arena. Insuring that users have access to information only relevant to thier role, in one hand ensures efficient execution and on other hand it privdes security of information too. Eevn a compromise of a size of an ant in Planning data can lead to an impact on the Execution front of a size of an elephant. Hence the need of having a secure user management functionality is a must to have in all the Planning Solutions.

Demantra application has quite a flexible but strong user based data security system in place. It provides you control to grant access to users based on thier responsbilties and roles. The access control is not only applicable to data but can also be tailored for Menus, Programs and Applications. Using security option provided at User creation level and at Portal access levels, you can easily configure a well protected and secure collaborative planning environment.

Data Secutiry:Data in Demantra is partitioned by Components and users have access to only one Component. Each user is granted access to a part of data of a component. Ex. with two mutualy exclusive components X and Y, user defined in component X, cannt get access to data belonging to Component Y. Every component has an owner, who acts as Administrator for the component and has control on it's data access.
Components are defined to partition data, by Series, Levels, Indexes, UOMs, etc., and controls what you see as a user in the worksheets. Only entities selected in Componenet definition are visible and avaialble for the users of the respective component.

Feature Secutiry:Access to Menu options, programs, applications and modules is restricted based on Permission levels defined for user. It empowers administrator to control access to all the Menus avaialble in Demantra. E.g. A causal user when logs into "Business Modeler" can see only Password change menu option, while a System Manager user, can view most of the administrative options, when he logs into the same application. Menu items available in Collaborator Workbench can be controled at various levels like at USer level, at USer Group level etc.

User Managment:Users within Demantra are created in "Business Modeler" application, using Menu option:"Security > Create/Modify User". You can create user with specific permission levels based on their role. A user can be created with access to only specific set of modules, eg. A Demand Planner user needs to have access to may be only Collaborator Workbench. Unlike Oracle Demand Planning(ODP), you have to just do distribution of data only once for a user. You can grant access based on user's role by selecting only particular level members of a level. E.g. A Sales Representative would like to work only his account and might want to view other few accounts as well. In this scenario, you assign a particular account level member to him with Full Access and you assign other level members of account level, with access Read Only. You can create User Groups for ease of collaboration, alert notifications, and enabling security.

EBS-Demantra integrated environment: In an integrated environment, you can configure SSO(Single Sign On) for Demantra for easy switching to Demantra application from EBS application. Once SSO is setup, users created in Oracle EBS with Demantra responsibilities assigned to them are mirrored automatically in Demantra application. This ensures that if you while working on EBS, click on Demand Management Workbench link to open Demantra Collaborator workbench, then application will directly log you into the Demantra environment. In absence of SSO setup, users see Demantra Log In window, when they try to launch Demantra applications from EBS.

For more detailed explanation and setup understanding on this topic, you should refer to "Implementation guide" of Demantra, available in Oracle Metalink.

Demantra Predictive Trade Planning & Promotion Optimization

Demantra's PTP & TPMO module focuses on Consumer Good industry's requirement for trade promotions and account planning, sales forecasting, and promotions optimizations. The module is build on top of basic Demand Management module and utilizes various components of Demand planning function. Few of the important features can be listed as:

• Lift generation on top of Baseline forecast when engine is run in Promotion Effectiveness (PE) mode
• Promotions Planning & Analysis, with easy scenario wise comparison of expected incremental lift and trade spending
• Promotion optimization, to simulate promotional scenarios for decision making assistance on the basis of ROI, Revenue or Profit targets.

Oracle has already released seeded integration between PTP module with Enterprise One (JD Edwards) and Siebel.

PTP Integration Flow with Enterprise One(E1):

1. Load master data(product and customer hierarchy) with historical sales data from E1
2. Load history of promotions (can come from legacy TPM system)
3. Generate Baseline forecast & Lift by executing Engine in Demantra
4. Create promotion plans and scenarios in Demantra
5. Load future promotion plans/pricing information to E1
6. Process sales orders against new promotions in E1
7. Load actual trade spending from E1 to Demantra
8. Generate volume forecast in Demantra and Submit back to E1

PTP Integration Flow with Siebel: This integration supports two scenarios in which Demantra can be used by a business. First, Promotion planning done inside Siebel with Demantra being executed in back end. Baseline forecast with Lift information is fetched into Siebel on regular basis for usage during planning. Second, Promotion planning being done in either of the systems and results are synchronized on near real time basis.

1. Load data extracts for Product, Account, Promotion, Planning hierarchy with sales and promotion activity details into Demantra from Siebel
2. Generate Forecast with lift in Demantra
3. Load data extracts from Demantra for Baseline Volume Forecast, Lift and Promotions to Siebel.

The objective behind these integrations is to make Demantra's advanced Forecasting technology available to all. Using the best of breed technology for various business processes is the strategy which Oracle is following as a path towards Fusion. With PTP & TPMO module's seeded integrations, customers on JD Edwards(E1) or Siebel can benefit themselves from Demantra's offering with ease.

Forecasting Demand vs Sales

One should understand the fact that Demand forecast is not same as Sales forecast and that by utilizing demand forecast rather than sales forecast for planning inventory level can reduce the risk of losing sales by matching the stock with forecasted demand.

On one hand where sales forecast is critical for any retailer for running their business, to make buying decisions and planning operations, it is also important for financial planning. But when retailers follow sales forecast they are not able to meet the actual demand of their merchandise, since they didn’t had the right inventory to meet the consumer demand resulting in lost sales. Also excess inventory for not required item increases the inventory carrying cost and hence eating out your profit.

Planning done based on sales forecast doesn’t capture effects of stocking, where in case of stock out the incoming demand is not converted into sales. Demand of item also decreases due of improper positioning/display of item in shelf; say a particular model of mobile not displayed in shelf might result in low sales of that model. Also in an instance where a competitor launches a new product with similar attributes or in case where there is an event planned to occur for promoting your market, the demand of your item will be impacted. Hence these factors need to be considered when planning is done and should be reflected in forecasted demand.

Forecasting Demand
Demand forecast is more than sales as it not merely represents relation between product and quantity, but also represents effects of pricing, merchandising, promotions, competitor events and other casual factors. Demand forecast includes input from partners, customers and other stakeholders to consider the effect of events and operations outside your territory of planning.

Promotional events effects the demand to a great extent and thus demand planners must take it’s effect on sales while planning. Also various market scenarios impact the demand curve and hence the product sale, proactive response is required for being prepared with proper inventory to exploit the market conditions.

Forecasting Methodology
-Market response based
Business decisions impact in form of market response should be simulated and studied before actual implementations. Ex effect of price change on demand should be analyzed considering price and demand elasticity. Also the impact of market conditions such as display arrangement, competitive offerings and seasonal demand need to be observed and absorbed in demand forecasting methodology.
-Time series based
Time series methods utilize historic happenings and events for future predictions. Based on business conditions suitable method is selected.
Example:
- Holt’s Method : fmcg or basic or staple merchandise
- Winter’s Method : seasonal merchandise
-Croston’s Method : merchandise with lesser turnover
………… ………..
There are more than ten such methods which best suit a particular condition. All these methods learn from historic similar events and model seasonal variation, trend growth or decay, and lifecycle flow.

Sensing Demand
Since time series uses demand history the best pick for gathering this data is from Point Of Sale which is the best source of actual sales information. Adjustments on sales data should be made for full-filing the effect of loss of sales, by adding those extra quantities which would have got sold if it was in stock. Historical demand and related information should be collected from various reliable sources.

Shaping Demand
With knowledge of impact of various promotional and pricing strategies, you will be able to better make decisions in selecting price and promotions. You can align your business objectives with tactical planning options such as what promotions should be launched, when to launch them, in what price band product should be sold etc. Also with information of promotions plan the inventory stocking should be planned to meet that extra demand of right product, thus minimizing over stocks and stock out conditions.

Demand Driven Planning & Execution
The forecasted demand should be utilized by various stakeholders for further planning and execution purpose, to practically operate the demand plan. Business rules and operations should be enacted on for executing the plan so that the forecasted demand is actually converted into sales. Demand intelligence when not executed into the business will not see any fruits too. On the other hand when the same demand intelligence is utilized by the marketing, manufacturing, suppliers and partners for pricing decisions, promotion tactics, inventory planning and stocking purposes, then this all drives to result into intelligent Sales plan.

Sales & Operational Planning (S&OP)

Sales & Operational Planning

Sales & Operational Planning (in sort S&OP) stands for business process of integrating all the planning entities of an enterprise, an evolved version of it is also termed by industry experts as Integrated Business Planning (IBP) process. IBP process compromises of complete planning cycle in following order, Sales Revenue Planning, Demand Planning, Supply Planning, Profit based Supply/Demand balancing, Management Review. S&OP focuses on balancing of demand & supply with the financial plan supporting it and is a monthly reviewing process. Stakeholders in this process review the data at aggregated level in quantity as well as in amount and it facilitate the in putting the strategic decision plans to execution.

S&OP process involves and/or interacts with following processes:
- Sales Planning
o New Product Planning
o Revenue, Margin & Profitability planning
o Enterprise Goals
- Demand Planning
o Sensing Demand
o Forecasting Demand
o Demand Collaboration(sales, marketing and operations)
o Shaping Demand(events, promotions, causal factors etc)
o Consensus Forecasting
- Supply Planning
o Capacity Planning(supplier, resource)
o Inventory Planning(Safety stocks, postponements)
o Material Planning
- Demand/Supply Balancing
o What if Analysis - simulations
o Collaboration(internal as well as external)
o Constraint based planning
- Review
o Key Performance Indicators(KPI) measurements
o Plan vs Actual
o Margins
o Inventory Turn
o Forecast Accuracy
o Exceptions & Alerts

Dashboards in SCM

Got bored of running into summary details of each and every report to get a high level picture ? Ever thought of having a platform where you can have all the information at your finger tips(literally at finger tips), if yes then you should not ignore the power of Dashboards.

The importance of having dashboards in today's growing supply chain is quite clear, as the need of having visibility of data across the chain is required to move towards being a demand driven network. Dashboards can be utilised to provide an accurate high level picture of how well are the components of supply chain performing. It provides a manager a wonderful tool for reviewing the statuses and for remainging updated with execution statstics. Managers can easily grasp the information by just looking at the various graphs and tables, which can be also utilized in thier meetings with higher management.

A well customized dashboard application inline with the user's requirement and role can serve as a daily cutom newspaper for all the updates and happenings.

Importance of Collaborative Planning (CP)

Most of the industries have their various departments managing their shows on their own and for themselves. Manufacturing crew works for a production plan which utilises the available resources to most, with more number of longer batch runs and try to achieve new production records every month. Working in a motor manufacturing industry I have seen closely how one used to focus on efficiently producing maximum numbers and achieving targets set by manufacturing team, which were not most of the time exactly in line with organisation's targets. In similar fashion we used to see around us other departments like marketing, sales, supply chain working in their own island of comfort, remaining untouched from other

Going solo is not a workable solution in today's work environment, one need to have proper communication channel and portal for sharing information, exchanging point of views and reaching to a consensus plan. All the latest application providers today have this agenda in mind and thus most of them support collaboration.

An online collaborative work environment can be utilised for communication, alerts management and in decision makings. It in one hand where brings visibility to the organization, on the other hand the results of such an environment returns in form of increased profits, sales and service level.

Oracle's Oracle Collaborative planning module which is part of their APS offerings, has capabilities for internal as well as external collaboration. Internal collaboration provides multiple enterprise planning environment, where planning time can be reduced and pro-active actions can be taken during plans execution. External collaboration with suppliers provide information regarding incoming supplies plan, utilising which supply chain plans can be created. Two-way collaboration is beneficial to both the parties, as they with empowering information are in better state of managing operations.

http://www.oracle.com/applications/planning/SCC.html