Monday, June 6, 2011

Integrated Causal Exponential Model (BWint)

Demantra has Integrated Causal Exponential Model (BWint) as one of the models available for analytical engine. This also is a regression model, known as Multiplicative regression - winter model. The model works only in DP mode. It runs multiplicative regression on Causal data (short CFs) and then smooths out the residual series exponentially like HOLT.

Data Type: Good fit for capturing Trends, Seasonality and Causality in demand data.

Example: Here is an example of where forecast is generated by Bwint model of Demantra. Look at how engine is able to capture seasonality and demand trend accurately, providing a good baseline forecast for planners to start with.

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