Demantra forecasting models -Part1

Demantra spectrum product has a set of various mathematical models geared up for capturing various demand patterns. It utilizes Bayesian modeling technique to combine the result of forecast generated by individual 15 mathematical models. The final forecast doesn't merely represents results based on prediction done by just selecting a mathematical model which can best fit the historical pattern of demand. Demantra's patented Bayesian modeling forecasting engine, instead captures the qualitative prediction done by multiple models and thus resulting in one of the best forecasting results in industry.

Oracle's Demantra Demand Management module only provides 9 basic mathematical models and 6 configurable Causal Factors, rest of the 6 advanced statistical models and flexibility of creating unlimited Casual Factors are given away with Advanced Forecasting & Demand Modeling (AFDM) module.

Demand Management module's forecast library has following set of models for usage:
1. Regression
2. Transformation Model(log)
3. Regression for Intermittent
4. Holt
5. Croston for Intermittent
6. Combined Transformation Model(elog)
7. Multiplicative Monte Carlo Regression(CMReg)
8. Integrated Causal Exponential Model(BWint)
9. Auto & Linear Regression

Let's try to get a feel of what are these models and how they work ?
1. Regression: These models are statistical models which are capable enough of describing the variation(trend/pattern) one or more variable(s), based on the variation of one or more other variable(s). Inferences based on this kind of methodology are known as Regression analysis.
e.g. Variation of Demand of a product in market based on time variation.

2. Transformation Model(log): Log transformation model utilizes the log function which squeezes the large values of data together and stretches the small values apart, thus leading to correction data issues like skewed data, outliers and unequal variation.
e.g. Normally demand data has various such problems, the log transformation model tries to minimize those.

3. Regression for Intermittent: This model uses regression analysis for intermittent kind of data. There are parameters related to defining intermittent part of data in the application.

4. Holt: An extension of exponential smoothing can be used when time-series data exhibits a linear trend.

5. Croston for Intermittent: Croston’s Intermittent Model is specifically designed to deal with sporadic demand (no seasonality) with a two-step process. Croston’s Intermittent model recognizes both : the demand size and the demand occurrence.

.. to be continued

Downloading Demantra - Too many choices

Demantra under Oracle brand name has now completed more than 18 months and by now Oracle has released three versions of product with Oracle name on it. Oracle's E-delivery site as of today shows following list of products:

The latest release is 7.2 and is only 2 weeks old. Previous releases are 7.1.1 which now is 6 months old and quite a few implementation of this version are either completed or are towards completion phase. 7.1.0.1 version was the first release made by Oracle, which is more of an Oracle christened Demantra product.

Which one I need?

There are lot many factors which will drive this decision, but the differentiators here in terms of integration offered by Oracle will be a key to decision making.

- Demantra 7.2: For business which wants to do an integrated S&OP using Demantra spectrum.

- Demantra 7.1.1: For those who want to have just the basic Demand Planning environment to start with, but need the integration with EBS.

- Demantra 7.1.0.1: For stand alone Demantra installation.

As per standard practise, it is always recommended to go for the latest version of product when it comes to buying licence of a product. But again points like stability of a release, industry examples, need of business and budget etc. play a vital role in making a call.

What Demantra's 7.2 version has to offer ?

Oracle Demantra's 7.2 version has brought three major seeded integration and also with this release Oracle has first time revealed three other Demantra modules with Oracle flavor. The list compromises of Real time Sales & Operations Planning, Predictive Trade Planning & Deduction Settlement Management. All these modules were available earlier as well in Demantra Spectrum, but now in 7.2 release Oracle has provided integrated versions of these with it's ERP applications. S&OP has got integrated with Oracle EBS and APS modules, while PTP(Predictive Trade Planning) & DSM(Deduction Settlement & Management) modules have been integrated with JD Edwards Enterprise One(JDE E1).

S&OP integration comes in line with the earlier release 7.1 where Oracle integrated Demand Management module of Demantra with Oracle's EBS & JDE E1. Oracle Demantra Demand Management offered an out of box configured web based collaborative demand planning environment for achieving best in class, unconstrained accurate forecast. This unconstrained consensus forecast was then available for being referred and used by down the line Supply chain components and ERP system for supply planning.
S&OP integration on top of it, empowers you to bring in all the capacity & material constraints with all the supply plan information into Demantra application. The inbound integration in 7.2 has grown to ASCP(Advanced Supply Chain Planing) & SNO(Strategic Network Optimization) modules, along with EBS. This seeded integration fetches in supply chain intelligence information & cost data too, for being utilized in S&OP process. Outbound seeded integration available in this release are to ASCP, SNO, IO(Inventory Optimization) & PS(Production Scheduling).

More information on JDE E1 integration with Demantra is available on : "http://www.peoplesoft.com/corp/en/iou/implement/integration/demantra.jsp"

Oracle Demantra 7.2 released

Getting the Application

Oracle's latest release of Demantra application version 7.2 is now available on e-delivery site.

One can download the latest version available after agreeing to the Terms & Conditions of usage. Open the site and reach to the search page, there select product pack "Oracle Demantra" and platform as required(being a Windows user I selected MS Windows 32 it) and click on GO button.

Once downloaded you can run the installer and can easily install a stand alone Demantra application demo.

Demanta 7.2 version integrates Demantra S&OP module with Oracle's EBS and provides an out of box configuration for S&OP business process. It also has seeded integration between Enterprise One & Demantra's PTP & DSM modules.

Note:Make sure you follow the Terms & Conditions prescribed by Oracle for usage of the application downloaded from their e-delivery sites.

Demantra 7.2 version Documentation

Oracle has now made available documentation for it's latest release of Oracle Demantra 7.2. The major features of this release are supposed to be following:

1. Real time S&OP integrated with Oracle EBS

2. Demantra PTP integration with E1
3. Demantra DSM integration with E1

With this release Oracle has delivered on it's promise to provide a tight integration between Demantra and it's other ERP modules. Looking forward in Demantra deliverables, we should be getting Demantra CTO(Configure to Order) module, Demantra PTP integration with Siebel & Demantra S&OP integrated with Enterprise One.

Oracle Demantra Demand Management Documentation Library
	Doc ID:	Note:443969.1	Type:	LIBRARY
	Last Revision Date:	13-NOV-2007	Status:	PUBLISHED

Oracle Demantra Demand Management Documentation Library 7.2 Part No/Reference Link Oracle Demantra User's Guide Release 7.2 E05072-02 PDF Oracle Demantra Implementation Guide Release 7.2 E05136-04 PDF Oracle Demantra Demand Management User's Guide Release 7.2 E05179-02 PDF Oracle Demantra Predictive Trade Planning User's Guide Release 7.2 E05137-02 PDF Oracle Demantra Settlement Management User's Guide Release 7.2 E05138-02 PDF Oracle Demantra Sales and Operations Planning Release 7.2 E10533-01

Demantra Application - Components

Demantra has two set of applications, one which are Browser based applications and others which are desktop based. Typically used Demantra applications are:

1. Browser based applications: These applications provide a web-based collaborative environment with a customizable and user-friendly user interface. Most used applications in this category are Collaborator Workbench, Workflow Management and Demand Planner Anywhere

2. Client based applications: Desktop applications are used mostly by only few key users as these applications serve as administrative tools. Few important ones in this category are Business Modeler, Demand Planner, Scheduler, Engine Administrator etc.

Basic Components of Demantra:
Worksheets: This is an online working environment provided for viewing and editing data. Worksheets are created for supporting need of specific business functions/processes. The worksheet application is the environment on which a demand planner/analyst works for most of the hours of his day.

Workflow: A browser based application for executing functions and processes from front end. This act as a software process which can be utilised to support complex processes & flows and also can automate it.

Content Panes: Dashboards with graphical or tabular views in a read only format, to present all the information on your fingertips. Content Panes become very handy for Executives and Managers for information which can be fetched from the worksheets and represent KPIs.

Collaborator Workbench: Browser based collaborative workbench environment which serves as a launch pad for various applications as well as for quick information & updates with access to KPIs. Workbench can be personalized for each business user as per their needs and roles.

Analytical Engine: Forecasting Engine which generates forecast using Bayesian modeling technique by utilizing multiple statistical models(number depends on licence).

Installing Demantra 7.1.1 on Windows

Installing Demantra

Detailed instructions for installing Demantra are available on Oracle Metalink(Doc Id:Note:428495.1), through this blog we would be exploring out the high level requirement and steps involved in installation process, following which one can easily install Demantra for demo purposes.

System Requirement: A PIV processor with atleast 1 GB RAM and sufficient disk space for a keeping a Database installation. (I have installed multiple times on this configuration and system capabilities never came up as a problem, but yeah data size on which I work is no where closer to real life situations). For a client site project the requirement would be obviously on high side.

Software Requirement: For Demo purposes, Windows XP OS is recommended and Tomcat serves the purpose of application server. Oracle DB(9i or 10g) server should be installed on the machine.

Pre-requisites: Make sure you have the installer, security license file and Database information, before you start the installation process. It is adviced to cleanup previous versions of Java for smooth installation. Keep the database running and close out all other applications on your system.

Demantra Installation: Run the installer(setup.exe, Launch Anywhere) and follow these
instructions for completion;

Introduction : Click on Next

Product Configuration/Installation Set : Select "Typical" or "Complete" as per the requirement. The Installation Set window appears if you select the "Custom" option

Choose Install Folder : select the folder in which you would like to install

Choose Shortcut Location : Specify where to put the product shortcuts of application

Database Configuration :

• Select DB type as "Oracle" and click Next.
• Provide information to connect to DB as DB administrator. (DBA user name, password & TNS name).
• Click next and create a user under which all the Demantra data will be stored.
• On next screen provide details for JDBC connectivity.(host machine, port number & Oracle SID)
• Select the application as per the requirement for Demo purposes you should pick the "Standard Application" option which has an out-of-box configuration.
• On next screen select table spaces

General Configuration:

• Specify Web Address : Define the web address to access Web based applications like CWB & Workflow Manager
• Client Plugin download : Keep the default values(for Java Plugin version) and Click on Next
• Designate Administrator Account : Assign administrator account to a Demantra user by providing mail server details and login details, so that all the automated messages are sent to the administrator.
• Setup Environments : Select promotion environments you want to work on, based on selection you made a default DB structure will be constructed.

Pre-installation Summary : Review the selections made till now, before initiating the actual installation of application. This is kind of summary of install option set which will be installed.

Installing : Wait for the installation to complete this step usually takes some time, so be patient.

Database Summary : This installation step creates user, imports demo data and creates all the procedures.

Final Tuning : Option of upgrading to Settlement Management is made available on this screen, Skip if you don't want it.

Install Complete : Once installation is complete, select the option of re-starting the system and you are done.

Post Installation : Verify that the installation done is working by opening few key applications like Collaborator Workbench, Business Modeler & Engine Administrator. Start the DB & application server(Tomcat in this case). Open the folder in which Demantra was installed and look for following path ....Oracle Demantra Spectrum\Collaborator\Links to get to the links for opening web-based applications like Collaborator Workbench. Open the link and login as dm/dm to access the pre-configured demand management workbench. Try opening Business modeler application by clicking on modeler.exe file located in the installed folder with path ...Oracle Demantra Spectrum\Demand Planner\DeskTop.

Demantra on E-Delivery

Getting the Application

Oracle has made the Demantra application available on their e-delivery site(http://edelivery.oracle.com/). One can download the latest version available after agreeing to the Terms & Conditions of usage. Open the site and reach to the search page, there select product pack "Oracle Demantra" and platform as required(being a Windows user I selected MS Windows 32 it) and click on GO button.

Once downloaded you can run the installer and can easily install a stand alone Demantra application demo.

Note:Make sure you follow the Terms & Conditions prescribed by Oracle for usage of the application downloaded from their e-delivery sites.

Oracle Demantra Application

Oracle's acquisition of Demantra Technologies has broaden the Oracle's offering in Supply chain management domain with Demantra catering to serve as Advanced Forecasting, Demand planning and Real time Sales & Operational Planning solution for business needs. Oracle's in house developed Oracle Demand Planning(ODP) product made way for Demantra's Demand Management application as the later is now the application being offered for demand planning solution.



Oracle Demantra offers solution in following lines of industrial needs:

• Demand Management


• Real time Sales & Operational Planning


• Trade Promotion & Management


• Deduction/Settlement Management

Demantra with it's best in class quality application and ORACLE's brand name attached to it, is galloping to new heights of demand in market. The solutions stand alone offering as well as integrated offering with Oracle EBS, JD Edwards Enterprise & One World has proven it's capabilities already in the market.