CHAPTER 5- DEMAND FORECASTING
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Sunday, April 3, 2011
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Few Forecasting Phrases
Forecasting in business is like sex in society, we have to have it, we cannot
get along without it, everyone is doing it, one way or another, but nobody is
sure he is doing it the best way.
-G W Plossl
Last Frontiers for Profits
Forecasting is like trying to drive a car
blindfolded and following directions
given by a person who is looking
out of the back window
- unknown
All forecasts are wrong
Those who claim to forecast the future
are all lying even if, by chance,
they are later proved right .
Monday, January 31, 2011
Demantra 7.3.1 released
Few key features which 7.3.1 has to offer are:
- Support for Service Parts Forecasting: Seeded integration now available between Demantra and Service Parts Planning(SPP) module. For customers implementing SPP module this integration can help them use Demantra for developing a more accurate Service(Spare) Parts forecast.
- Support for Multiple Business Processes: Forecast tree and Causal Factors can now be setup differently for each engine profile, allowing better flexibility around setting up analytical engine for different business processes.
- Enhanced Proport: Improved Proport process performance by providing additional parameters to control proport run.
- Worksheet Performance improvement: Additional parameters to create parallel hints for specific worksheets which can help in improving the performance of Demantra worksheets.
- Support for Rolling Data Profile Groups: Users can now assign rolling data profiles to a group and then can call these groups for execution using workflow. This feature increases flexibility around archiving process within Demantra.
New versions of various Demantra documentation now available in Oracle MySupport @
| Oracle Demantra Documentation Library [ID 443969.1] |
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Demantra 7.3: Engine split based on series
Whas is NEW ?:
Demantra 7.3 has come up with quite few features which customers have been wishing to see. One of these is ability to split statistical forecast which generated at aggregated level to split down to lowest level based on user defined/controlled proportions. Prior to 7.3 this split was always based on historical proportions and there was no workaround for it. These historical proportions were calculated based on every product and location combinations historical monthly sales averages using proport procedure. Split by series option allows user to pick a series which dictates weights for dis-aggregation of baseline forecast.
How we USE it?
1. Define a new series with server expression, the server expression gets used in weight calculation.
2. Using Business modeler setup parameter: ENGINE > PROPORT tab > parameter name "ProportionSeries" shall be populated with the internal name of the above series.
3. Select combinations/population to use SPLIT MECHANISM by using series "Engine Proportion Method" in a worksheet. The series has two dropdown values, Matrix Based Proportions which is the default and Series Based Proportions which is the value required for series based split.
Demantra 7.3 has come up with quite few features which customers have been wishing to see. One of these is ability to split statistical forecast which generated at aggregated level to split down to lowest level based on user defined/controlled proportions. Prior to 7.3 this split was always based on historical proportions and there was no workaround for it. These historical proportions were calculated based on every product and location combinations historical monthly sales averages using proport procedure. Split by series option allows user to pick a series which dictates weights for dis-aggregation of baseline forecast.
How we USE it?
1. Define a new series with server expression, the server expression gets used in weight calculation.
2. Using Business modeler setup parameter: ENGINE > PROPORT tab > parameter name "ProportionSeries" shall be populated with the internal name of the above series.
3. Select combinations/population to use SPLIT MECHANISM by using series "Engine Proportion Method" in a worksheet. The series has two dropdown values, Matrix Based Proportions which is the default and Series Based Proportions which is the value required for series based split.
Monday, August 9, 2010
Oracle Open World 2010: Sales and Operations Planning for the Food and Beverage Industry
Join us at Oracle Open World 2010 for a session on "Sales and Operations Planning for the Food and Beverage Industry"
http://www.eventreg.com/cc250/sessionDetail.jsp?SID=315911
http://www.eventreg.com/cc250/sessionDetail.jsp?SID=315911
Friday, June 18, 2010
Oracle E-Business Suite, Virtualization and Cloud Computing
Oracle E-Business Suite, Virtualization and Cloud Computing
Oracle E-Business Suite, Virtualization and Cloud Computing
New and Valuable Capabilities in this Oracle Release
February 3, 2010,
Volume 144, Issue 1
New and Valuable Capabilities in this Oracle Release
February 3, 2010,
Volume 144, Issue 1
 Oracle E-Business Suite 12.1.1 in a five-part nutshell.  |
In a five-part series on virtualization and cloud topics, Ivo Dujmovic, an architect in Oracle's Applications Technology Integration group, offers a detailed view of the Oracle E-Business Suite 12.1.1 for prospective and current users.
Read the complete article by clicking on this link "Oracle E-Business Suite, Virtualization and Cloud Computing"
Friday, April 16, 2010
Cloud Computing
Definition:
As defined by NIST(national institute of technology) Cloud computing is essentially on demand access to computing resources.
It has essential characterstics of on demand self service, resource pooling, rapid elasticity to scale out and scale in, the ability to meter who is using what and broad network access.
Three service models for cloud computing are:
1. SaaS software as a service, is a prebuilt, vertically integrated application/solution delivered to customer as a service.
2. IaaS infrastructure as a service, is purely providing computing resources, storage and network, as service to the client.
3. PaaS platform as a service. is a flexible combination of above two service models and thus customer can develop and deploy their own application using best of both the worlds.
It has essential characterstics of on demand self service, resource pooling, rapid elasticity to scale out and scale in, the ability to meter who is using what and broad network access.
Three service models for cloud computing are:
1. SaaS software as a service, is a prebuilt, vertically integrated application/solution delivered to customer as a service.
2. IaaS infrastructure as a service, is purely providing computing resources, storage and network, as service to the client.
3. PaaS platform as a service. is a flexible combination of above two service models and thus customer can develop and deploy their own application using best of both the worlds.
Deployment models:
1. Public cloud, is shared across multiple customers or tenants and is hosted and managed by a service provider.
2. Private cloud on the other hand is exclusive for an organization and is controlled and governed by that organization.
3. Hybrid cloud is where an organization with a private cloud model uses public clouds for any excess cloud service requirements occassionally. Eg an overflow or for additional workload needs
4. Community cloud is a semi private cloud with access to only a set of defined tenants who share backgrounds or needs
What is driving clouds ?
1. Public cloud, is shared across multiple customers or tenants and is hosted and managed by a service provider.
2. Private cloud on the other hand is exclusive for an organization and is controlled and governed by that organization.
3. Hybrid cloud is where an organization with a private cloud model uses public clouds for any excess cloud service requirements occassionally. Eg an overflow or for additional workload needs
4. Community cloud is a semi private cloud with access to only a set of defined tenants who share backgrounds or needs
What is driving clouds ?
AGILITY AGILITY AGILITY
The fact that users can provision resources on demand, acquire more resources when needed and release them when done with them, is the key driver for cloud computing.
Any drop off which may occur in the interaction happening between two clouds, might just mean a complete loss of valuable services. It is like two clouds up in the sky and informatiin flashin like lightening going from cloud to cloud and cloud to ground, the possibiltiess of loss of energy is inevitable and that is where the core problem of cloud computing lies.
Amazon web services are already in this niche market. For a public cloud to become a feasible solution for small businesses, the need to ensure the security of transaction and data.
Google OS is another such initiative where we will see a huge participation and usage of cloud computing capabilities.
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